Good morning! Below is a Chartcuterie supercut for Saturday, 5/16/15, and Sunday, 5/17/15. All are cross-posted from Twitter (curated list here).
Numero uno: just about the only truly bullish economic news this week, from the depths of JOLTS.
Since the dollar is in a pullback (down >5% from ATH), here's a history of said pullbacks, from CS.
UNFORTUNATELY, folks are still long the flattener, aka the dollar, and policy reconvergence is a big risk. (BAML)
USD dynamic is why CTAs and Macro are underperforming so far in Q2; for CTAs, positions should be clean now. (Barc)
Another brutal one has been the bund, but JPM argues spike in OI during volatility suggests positions not cleaned out
Trend breaks? More trend breaks. India approaching a correction and is massively overweighted. (HSBC/Citi)
HSBC also put together these neat-o charts on UK and US public sector debt; the long view....
Fund flows/supply don't matter for credit, it's just a noisy low beta equity trade!
ducks
(MS/Barc)
Lots of attention being paid to severe deterioration in Asian trade; one to watch. MS, HSBC, DB.
And finally: the CRB commodities index only delivered positive returns 11 of the last 20 years. (Bespoke)
Small business confidence, employment, and medium term GDP trend; small biz hiring whipping large companies.
In the last two elections, UK consumer confidence peaked around elections. Those patriotic scamps! (Barclays)
CS charts some pretty unbelievable deterioration in a variety of China output figures.
DB calculates short interest across the broad universe of US equity exposure; mixed timing.
The distribution of European inflation expectations have shifted, but not dramatically, especially versus the US (GS)
Also from GS, positioning is extremely elevated and getting set up for a big drop in inventories this summer.
Macquarie is not impressed with the CAD's rally, not one bit.
UBS charts global ETF flows; some notable surprises include India (BTFD), China (STFR), and Spain (Tapas time!).
Chicago OAS vs other muni market muck-abouts.
Finally, Industrial Production looks just terrible, there's no other way to put it really.
That's it for Chartcuterie this weekend. More charts coming next Saturday morning.
